Full prediction · calibrated model (T=1.845) · live: 2 results locked
World Cup 2026 — Win / Draw / Lose predictions, first match to the final
Exact probabilities for all 72 group matches, the model's projected 32 qualifiers, an illustrative bracket to the final, and stage-by-stage expectations. Built from the engine's Dixon-Coles model + 20,000 simulations.
How to read this honestly. The 72 group matches are real, scheduled fixtures, so their W/D/L percentages are exact model output. Everything after the group stage is a projection: real knockout pairings depend on who finishes where, so the qualifiers below are the model's most-likely picks and the bracket is an illustrative, strength-seeded path — not official fixtures. Percentages are calibrated win/draw/loss for regulation (90 min). "Pick" is simply the single most-likely outcome; a pick is never a certainty.
📡 Live mode: 2 real results locked in. Mexico 2–0 South Africa · South Korea 2–1 Czechia. Played matches show the model's pre-match probabilities with the final score; group tables use actual points for played games; team ratings carry an Elo update (K=50) from each result, shifting every downstream probability. Numbers regenerate with each site update.
Left team winDrawRight team winxPts = expected group points
Group stage — all 72 matches
Each group shows the predicted final table (by expected points, with qualification odds from the simulation) followed by every match with its win/draw/loss split, the most-likely result, and the most-likely scoreline.
Group A predicted table · qualify %
1
🇲🇽
Mexico 1884Winner
6.6
99%
2
🇰🇷
South Korea 1781Runner-up
5.9
96%
3
🇨🇿
Czechia 17033rd → out
2.6
50%
4
🇿🇦
South Africa 1519Out
1.8
22%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Mexico 🇲🇽v🇰🇷 South Korea✓ Mexico win
47%D 29%23%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.0%)
Mexico 🇲🇽v🇿🇦 South AfricaFT 2–0 ✓ pick landed
71%D 23%7%
Model said: Mexico win · most likely score 2–0 — actual 2–0
Mexico 🇲🇽v🇨🇿 Czechia✓ Mexico win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.0%)
South Korea 🇰🇷v🇿🇦 South Africa✓ South win
55%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.7%)
South Korea 🇰🇷v🇨🇿 CzechiaFT 2–1 ✓ pick landed
37%D 31%33%
Model said: South win · most likely score 1–1 — actual 2–1
South Africa 🇿🇦v🇨🇿 Czechia✓ Czechia win
23%D 29%48%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.9%)
Group B predicted table · qualify %
1
🇨🇭
Switzerland 1891Winner
5.8
94%
2
🇨🇦
Canada 1788Runner-up
5.6
92%
3
🇧🇦
Bosnia & Herzegovina 15953rd → out
3.2
56%
4
🇶🇦
Qatar 1421Out
1.8
22%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Canada 🇨🇦v🇨🇭 Switzerland✓ Switzerland win
32%D 31%37%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Canada 🇨🇦v🇶🇦 Qatar✓ Canada win
72%D 22%6%
Most likely score: 2–0 (18.4%)
Canada 🇨🇦v🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina✓ Canada win
55%D 28%17%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.7%)
Switzerland 🇨🇭v🇶🇦 Qatar✓ Switzerland win
73%D 21%6%
Most likely score: 2–0 (18.1%)
Switzerland 🇨🇭v🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina✓ Switzerland win
58%D 27%15%
Most likely score: 2–0 (12.9%)
Qatar 🇶🇦v🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina✓ Bosnia win
23%D 29%47%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.9%)
Group C predicted table · qualify %
1
🇧🇷
Brazil 1984Winner
5.8
93%
2
🇲🇦
Morocco 1824Runner-up
4.4
77%
3
🏴
Scotland 17823rd → advances
4.0
72%
4
🇭🇹
Haiti 1548Out
2.0
27%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Brazil 🇧🇷v🇲🇦 Morocco✓ Brazil win
46%D 30%24%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.1%)
Brazil 🇧🇷v🏴 Scotland✓ Brazil win
50%D 29%21%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.7%)
Brazil 🇧🇷v🇭🇹 Haiti✓ Brazil win
72%D 22%6%
Most likely score: 2–0 (18.4%)
Morocco 🇲🇦v🏴 Scotland✓ Morocco win
38%D 31%32%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Morocco 🇲🇦v🇭🇹 Haiti✓ Morocco win
56%D 27%17%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.4%)
Scotland 🏴v🇭🇹 Haiti✓ Scotland win
52%D 28%19%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.2%)
Group D predicted table · qualify %
1
🇵🇾
Paraguay 1833Winner
4.3
72%
2
🇹🇷
Türkiye 1815Runner-up
4.1
70%
3
🇺🇸
USA 17263rd → advances
4.0
68%
4
🇦🇺
Australia 1777Out
3.8
64%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
USA 🇺🇸v🇵🇾 Paraguay✓ Paraguay win
32%D 31%37%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
USA 🇺🇸v🇦🇺 Australia✓ USA win
36%D 31%33%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
USA 🇺🇸v🇹🇷 Türkiye✓ Türkiye win
33%D 31%36%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Paraguay 🇵🇾v🇦🇺 Australia✓ Paraguay win
39%D 30%31%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Paraguay 🇵🇾v🇹🇷 Türkiye✓ Paraguay win
36%D 31%33%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Australia 🇦🇺v🇹🇷 Türkiye✓ Türkiye win
32%D 31%37%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Group E predicted table · qualify %
1
🇪🇨
Ecuador 1935Winner
5.7
93%
2
🇩🇪
Germany 1923Runner-up
5.6
92%
3
🇨🇮
Ivory Coast 16953rd → advances
3.6
65%
4
🇨🇼
Curaçao 1434Out
1.5
17%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Germany 🇩🇪v🇪🇨 Ecuador✓ Ecuador win
34%D 31%36%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Germany 🇩🇪v🇨🇮 Ivory Coast✓ Germany win
52%D 28%20%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.3%)
Germany 🇩🇪v🇨🇼 Curaçao✓ Germany win
74%D 21%6%
Most likely score: 2–0 (17.9%)
Ecuador 🇪🇨v🇨🇮 Ivory Coast✓ Ecuador win
53%D 28%19%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.1%)
Ecuador 🇪🇨v🇨🇼 Curaçao✓ Ecuador win
74%D 20%5%
Most likely score: 2–0 (17.8%)
Ivory Coast 🇨🇮v🇨🇼 Curaçao✓ Ivory win
55%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.8%)
Group F predicted table · qualify %
1
🇳🇱
Netherlands 1961Winner
5.4
89%
2
🇯🇵
Japan 1906Runner-up
5.0
85%
3
🇸🇪
Sweden 17123rd → advances
3.3
56%
4
🇹🇳
Tunisia 1628Out
2.6
39%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Netherlands 🇳🇱v🇯🇵 Japan✓ Netherlands win
39%D 30%31%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Netherlands 🇳🇱v🇹🇳 Tunisia✓ Netherlands win
61%D 26%13%
Most likely score: 2–0 (14.2%)
Netherlands 🇳🇱v🇸🇪 Sweden✓ Netherlands win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.0%)
Japan 🇯🇵v🇹🇳 Tunisia✓ Japan win
56%D 27%16%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.4%)
Japan 🇯🇵v🇸🇪 Sweden✓ Japan win
49%D 29%22%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.8%)
Tunisia 🇹🇳v🇸🇪 Sweden✓ Sweden win
29%D 30%41%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.5%)
Group G predicted table · qualify %
1
🇧🇪
Belgium 1866Winner
5.3
87%
2
🇮🇷
Iran 1772Runner-up
4.5
77%
3
🇪🇬
Egypt 16963rd → advances
3.8
66%
4
🇳🇿
New Zealand 1562Out
2.7
42%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Belgium 🇧🇪v🇮🇷 Iran✓ Belgium win
41%D 30%28%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.4%)
Belgium 🇧🇪v🇪🇬 Egypt✓ Belgium win
47%D 29%23%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.0%)
Belgium 🇧🇪v🇳🇿 New Zealand✓ Belgium win
59%D 27%15%
Most likely score: 2–0 (13.1%)
Iran 🇮🇷v🇪🇬 Egypt✓ Iran win
40%D 30%30%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.5%)
Iran 🇮🇷v🇳🇿 New Zealand✓ Iran win
50%D 29%21%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.6%)
Egypt 🇪🇬v🇳🇿 New Zealand✓ Egypt win
44%D 30%26%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.2%)
Group H predicted table · qualify %
1
🇪🇸
Spain 2165Winner
6.9
98%
2
🇺🇾
Uruguay 1892Runner-up
4.9
86%
3
🇨🇻
Cape Verde 15783rd → out
2.4
36%
4
🇸🇦
Saudi Arabia 1569Out
2.3
34%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Spain 🇪🇸v🇺🇾 Uruguay✓ Spain win
56%D 27%17%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.5%)
Spain 🇪🇸v🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia✓ Spain win
77%D 18%5%
Most likely score: 2–0 (16.7%)
Spain 🇪🇸v🇨🇻 Cape Verde✓ Spain win
76%D 19%5%
Most likely score: 2–0 (16.8%)
Uruguay 🇺🇾v🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia✓ Uruguay win
60%D 26%13%
Most likely score: 2–0 (13.8%)
Uruguay 🇺🇾v🇨🇻 Cape Verde✓ Uruguay win
60%D 26%14%
Most likely score: 2–0 (13.5%)
Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦v🇨🇻 Cape Verde✓ Cape win
34%D 31%35%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Group I predicted table · qualify %
1
🇫🇷
France 2081Winner
5.9
94%
2
🇳🇴
Norway 1917Runner-up
4.5
79%
3
🇸🇳
Senegal 18673rd → advances
4.0
71%
4
🇮🇶
Iraq 1618Out
1.9
25%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
France 🇫🇷v🇸🇳 Senegal✓ France win
51%D 29%21%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.5%)
France 🇫🇷v🇳🇴 Norway✓ France win
47%D 30%24%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.0%)
France 🇫🇷v🇮🇶 Iraq✓ France win
73%D 21%6%
Most likely score: 2–0 (18.2%)
Senegal 🇸🇳v🇳🇴 Norway✓ Norway win
31%D 31%38%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Senegal 🇸🇳v🇮🇶 Iraq✓ Senegal win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.0%)
Norway 🇳🇴v🇮🇶 Iraq✓ Norway win
58%D 27%15%
Most likely score: 2–0 (13.0%)
Group J predicted table · qualify %
1
🇦🇷
Argentina 2113Winner
6.5
96%
2
🇦🇹
Austria 1830Runner-up
3.9
69%
3
🇩🇿
Algeria 17603rd → advances
3.3
57%
4
🇯🇴
Jordan 1685Out
2.6
41%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Argentina 🇦🇷v🇦🇹 Austria✓ Argentina win
57%D 27%16%
Most likely score: 2–0 (12.4%)
Argentina 🇦🇷v🇩🇿 Algeria✓ Argentina win
63%D 25%11%
Most likely score: 2–0 (15.0%)
Argentina 🇦🇷v🇯🇴 Jordan✓ Argentina win
72%D 22%6%
Most likely score: 2–0 (18.4%)
Austria 🇦🇹v🇩🇿 Algeria✓ Austria win
40%D 30%30%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.5%)
Austria 🇦🇹v🇯🇴 Jordan✓ Austria win
45%D 30%25%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.2%)
Algeria 🇩🇿v🇯🇴 Jordan✓ Algeria win
40%D 30%30%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.5%)
Group K predicted table · qualify %
1
🇵🇹
Portugal 1984Winner
5.4
88%
2
🇨🇴
Colombia 1977Runner-up
5.3
88%
3
🇺🇿
Uzbekistan 17183rd → out
3.1
51%
4
🇨🇩
DR Congo 1661Out
2.6
40%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
Portugal 🇵🇹v🇨🇴 Colombia✓ Portugal win
35%D 31%34%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.6%)
Portugal 🇵🇹v🇺🇿 Uzbekistan✓ Portugal win
55%D 28%17%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.7%)
Portugal 🇵🇹v🇨🇩 DR Congo✓ Portugal win
60%D 26%13%
Most likely score: 2–0 (13.8%)
Colombia 🇨🇴v🇺🇿 Uzbekistan✓ Colombia win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1–1 (12.8%)
Colombia 🇨🇴v🇨🇩 DR Congo✓ Colombia win
60%D 26%14%
Most likely score: 2–0 (13.6%)
Uzbekistan 🇺🇿v🇨🇩 DR Congo✓ Uzbekistan win
39%D 30%31%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.5%)
Group L predicted table · qualify %
1
🏴
England 2020Winner
6.0
94%
2
🇭🇷
Croatia 1908Runner-up
5.1
88%
3
🇵🇦
Panama 17303rd → advances
3.5
63%
4
🇬🇭
Ghana 1510Out
1.7
20%
All 6 matches — W / D / L
England 🏴v🇭🇷 Croatia✓ England win
43%D 30%27%
Most likely score: 1–1 (14.4%)
England 🏴v🇵🇦 Panama✓ England win
57%D 27%16%
Most likely score: 2–0 (12.7%)
England 🏴v🇬🇭 Ghana✓ England win
74%D 20%5%
Most likely score: 2–0 (17.7%)
Croatia 🇭🇷v🇵🇦 Panama✓ Croatia win
48%D 29%23%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.9%)
Croatia 🇭🇷v🇬🇭 Ghana✓ Croatia win
68%D 23%8%
Most likely score: 2–0 (17.0%)
Panama 🇵🇦v🇬🇭 Ghana✓ Panama win
51%D 29%20%
Most likely score: 1–1 (13.4%)
Projected qualifiers — the 32
Top two from each group (24) plus the eight best third-placed teams by expected points. These are the model's most-likely Round-of-32 entrants.
Illustrative strength-seeded bracket using the projected qualifiers. Each tie shows the regulation W/D/L and the team the model expects to advance (including shootout odds when a draw is most likely). Real pairings will differ — this is one representative path.
Round of 32 (16)
🇪🇸 Spain72%
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast6%
Draw 22% · Spain advance 89%
🇲🇽 Mexico36%
🇸🇳 Senegal33%
Draw 31% · Mexico advance 52%
🇳🇱 Netherlands48%
🇰🇷 South Korea22%
Draw 30% · Netherlands advance 67%
🇪🇨 Ecuador46%
🏴 Scotland24%
Draw 30% · Ecuador advance 64%
🏴 England59%
🇺🇸 USA14%
Draw 27% · England advance 77%
🇯🇵 Japan40%
🇦🇹 Austria29%
Draw 31% · Japan advance 57%
🇧🇷 Brazil55%
🇵🇦 Panama17%
Draw 29% · Brazil advance 73%
🇭🇷 Croatia40%
🇲🇦 Morocco28%
Draw 31% · Croatia advance 58%
🇦🇷 Argentina70%
🇪🇬 Egypt6%
Draw 23% · Argentina advance 88%
🇨🇭 Switzerland36%
🇧🇪 Belgium33%
Draw 31% · Switzerland advance 52%
🇨🇴 Colombia50%
🇮🇷 Iran20%
Draw 30% · Colombia advance 69%
🇩🇪 Germany44%
🇨🇦 Canada25%
Draw 31% · Germany advance 62%
🇫🇷 France67%
🇸🇪 Sweden8%
Draw 25% · France advance 85%
🇺🇾 Uruguay39%
🇵🇾 Paraguay30%
Draw 31% · Uruguay advance 55%
🇵🇹 Portugal52%
🇩🇿 Algeria19%
Draw 29% · Portugal advance 71%
🇳🇴 Norway42%
🇹🇷 Türkiye27%
Draw 31% · Norway advance 59%
Round of 16 (8)
🇪🇸 Spain57%
🇲🇽 Mexico15%
Draw 28% · Spain advance 76%
🇳🇱 Netherlands36%
🇪🇨 Ecuador32%
Draw 31% · Netherlands advance 52%
🏴 England43%
🇯🇵 Japan26%
Draw 31% · England advance 60%
🇧🇷 Brazil40%
🇭🇷 Croatia29%
Draw 31% · Brazil advance 57%
🇦🇷 Argentina52%
🇨🇭 Switzerland19%
Draw 29% · Argentina advance 70%
🇨🇴 Colombia38%
🇩🇪 Germany30%
Draw 31% · Colombia advance 55%
🇫🇷 France49%
🇺🇾 Uruguay21%
Draw 30% · France advance 67%
🇵🇹 Portugal39%
🇳🇴 Norway30%
Draw 31% · Portugal advance 56%
Quarter-finals (4)
🇪🇸 Spain50%
🇳🇱 Netherlands20%
Draw 30% · Spain advance 69%
🏴 England37%
🇧🇷 Brazil32%
Draw 31% · England advance 53%
🇦🇷 Argentina45%
🇨🇴 Colombia25%
Draw 31% · Argentina advance 62%
🇫🇷 France41%
🇵🇹 Portugal28%
Draw 31% · France advance 59%
Semi-finals (2)
🇪🇸 Spain45%
🏴 England24%
Draw 30% · Spain advance 63%
🇦🇷 Argentina37%
🇫🇷 France32%
Draw 31% · Argentina advance 53%
Final (1)
🇪🇸 Spain38%
🇦🇷 Argentina31%
Draw 31% · Spain advance 55%
Model's projected champion
🇪🇸 Spain
Projected final: 🇪🇸 Spain vs 🇦🇷 Argentina — most likely scoreline 1–1, Spain to advance 55%.
Stage expectations — top contenders
Probability of reaching each stage, from 20,000 simulations. This is the rigorous, fixture-independent view — unlike the single bracket above, it averages over every possible path.
#
Team
Reach R16
Reach QF
Reach SF
Reach Final
Win Cup
1
🇪🇸 Spain
79%
60%
44%
31%
21.7%
2
🇦🇷 Argentina
73%
52%
36%
23%
14.0%
3
🇫🇷 France
68%
46%
30%
19%
10.9%
4
🏴 England
63%
40%
24%
13%
7.0%
5
🇧🇷 Brazil
60%
35%
20%
10%
5.0%
6
🇵🇹 Portugal
56%
33%
18%
10%
4.6%
7
🇨🇴 Colombia
56%
33%
18%
9%
4.4%
8
🇳🇱 Netherlands
56%
32%
17%
8%
3.9%
9
🇪🇨 Ecuador
54%
29%
15%
7%
3.2%
10
🇩🇪 Germany
54%
29%
14%
6%
2.6%
11
🇭🇷 Croatia
49%
26%
13%
6%
2.5%
12
🇳🇴 Norway
45%
24%
12%
5%
2.4%
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