How to read this honestly. The 72 group matches are real, scheduled fixtures, so their W/D/L percentages are exact model output. Everything after the group stage is a projection: real knockout pairings depend on who finishes where, so the qualifiers below are the model's most-likely picks and the bracket is an illustrative, strength-seeded path โ not official fixtures. Percentages are calibrated win/draw/loss for regulation (90 min). "Pick" is simply the single most-likely outcome; a pick is never a certainty.
Left team win
Draw
Right team win
xPts = expected group points
Group stage โ all 72 matches
Each group shows the predicted final table (by expected points, with qualification odds from the simulation) followed by every match with its win/draw/loss split, the most-likely result, and the most-likely scoreline.
Group A predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ฒ๐ฝ | Mexico 1875Winner | 5.9 | 93% |
| 2 | ๐ฐ๐ท | South Korea 1758Runner-up | 4.2 | 74% |
| 3 | ๐จ๐ฟ | Czechia 17263rd โ advances | 3.9 | 70% |
| 4 | ๐ฟ๐ฆ | South Africa 1528Out | 2.2 | 32% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Mexico ๐ฒ๐ฝ v ๐ฐ๐ท South Koreaโ Mexico win
48%D 29%22%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.8%)
Mexico ๐ฒ๐ฝ v ๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africaโ Mexico win
71%D 23%7%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (18.0%)
Mexico ๐ฒ๐ฝ v ๐จ๐ฟ Czechiaโ Mexico win
51%D 29%20%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.5%)
South Korea ๐ฐ๐ท v ๐ฟ๐ฆ South Africaโ South win
52%D 28%20%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.3%)
South Korea ๐ฐ๐ท v ๐จ๐ฟ Czechiaโ South win
37%D 31%33%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
South Africa ๐ฟ๐ฆ v ๐จ๐ฟ Czechiaโ Czechia win
22%D 29%49%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.7%)
Group B predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐จ๐ญ | Switzerland 1891Winner | 5.8 | 94% |
| 2 | ๐จ๐ฆ | Canada 1788Runner-up | 5.6 | 92% |
| 3 | ๐ง๐ฆ | Bosnia & Herzegovina 15953rd โ out | 3.2 | 57% |
| 4 | ๐ถ๐ฆ | Qatar 1421Out | 1.8 | 22% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Canada ๐จ๐ฆ v ๐จ๐ญ Switzerlandโ Switzerland win
32%D 31%37%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Canada ๐จ๐ฆ v ๐ถ๐ฆ Qatarโ Canada win
72%D 22%6%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (18.4%)
Canada ๐จ๐ฆ v ๐ง๐ฆ Bosnia & Herzegovinaโ Canada win
55%D 28%17%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.7%)
Switzerland ๐จ๐ญ v ๐ถ๐ฆ Qatarโ Switzerland win
73%D 21%6%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (18.1%)
Switzerland ๐จ๐ญ v ๐ง๐ฆ Bosnia & Herzegovinaโ Switzerland win
58%D 27%15%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (12.9%)
Qatar ๐ถ๐ฆ v ๐ง๐ฆ Bosnia & Herzegovinaโ Bosnia win
23%D 29%47%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.9%)
Group C predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ง๐ท | Brazil 1984Winner | 5.8 | 93% |
| 2 | ๐ฒ๐ฆ | Morocco 1824Runner-up | 4.4 | 77% |
| 3 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ | Scotland 17823rd โ advances | 4.0 | 72% |
| 4 | ๐ญ๐น | Haiti 1548Out | 2.0 | 27% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Brazil ๐ง๐ท v ๐ฒ๐ฆ Moroccoโ Brazil win
46%D 30%24%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.1%)
Brazil ๐ง๐ท v ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotlandโ Brazil win
50%D 29%21%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.7%)
Brazil ๐ง๐ท v ๐ญ๐น Haitiโ Brazil win
72%D 22%6%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (18.4%)
Morocco ๐ฒ๐ฆ v ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotlandโ Morocco win
38%D 31%32%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Morocco ๐ฒ๐ฆ v ๐ญ๐น Haitiโ Morocco win
56%D 27%17%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.4%)
Scotland ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ v ๐ญ๐น Haitiโ Scotland win
52%D 28%19%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.2%)
Group D predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ต๐พ | Paraguay 1833Winner | 4.3 | 73% |
| 2 | ๐น๐ท | Tรผrkiye 1815Runner-up | 4.1 | 70% |
| 3 | ๐บ๐ธ | USA 17263rd โ advances | 4.0 | 67% |
| 4 | ๐ฆ๐บ | Australia 1777Out | 3.8 | 64% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
USA ๐บ๐ธ v ๐ต๐พ Paraguayโ Paraguay win
32%D 31%37%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
USA ๐บ๐ธ v ๐ฆ๐บ Australiaโ USA win
36%D 31%33%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
USA ๐บ๐ธ v ๐น๐ท Tรผrkiyeโ Tรผrkiye win
33%D 31%36%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Paraguay ๐ต๐พ v ๐ฆ๐บ Australiaโ Paraguay win
39%D 30%31%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Paraguay ๐ต๐พ v ๐น๐ท Tรผrkiyeโ Paraguay win
36%D 31%33%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Australia ๐ฆ๐บ v ๐น๐ท Tรผrkiyeโ Tรผrkiye win
32%D 31%37%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Group E predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ช๐จ | Ecuador 1935Winner | 5.7 | 93% |
| 2 | ๐ฉ๐ช | Germany 1923Runner-up | 5.6 | 92% |
| 3 | ๐จ๐ฎ | Ivory Coast 16953rd โ advances | 3.6 | 65% |
| 4 | ๐จ๐ผ | Curaรงao 1434Out | 1.5 | 16% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Germany ๐ฉ๐ช v ๐ช๐จ Ecuadorโ Ecuador win
34%D 31%36%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Germany ๐ฉ๐ช v ๐จ๐ฎ Ivory Coastโ Germany win
52%D 28%20%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.3%)
Germany ๐ฉ๐ช v ๐จ๐ผ Curaรงaoโ Germany win
74%D 21%6%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (17.9%)
Ecuador ๐ช๐จ v ๐จ๐ฎ Ivory Coastโ Ecuador win
53%D 28%19%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.1%)
Ecuador ๐ช๐จ v ๐จ๐ผ Curaรงaoโ Ecuador win
74%D 20%5%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (17.8%)
Ivory Coast ๐จ๐ฎ v ๐จ๐ผ Curaรงaoโ Ivory win
55%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.8%)
Group F predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ณ๐ฑ | Netherlands 1961Winner | 5.4 | 89% |
| 2 | ๐ฏ๐ต | Japan 1906Runner-up | 5.0 | 84% |
| 3 | ๐ธ๐ช | Sweden 17123rd โ advances | 3.3 | 56% |
| 4 | ๐น๐ณ | Tunisia 1628Out | 2.6 | 40% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Netherlands ๐ณ๐ฑ v ๐ฏ๐ต Japanโ Netherlands win
39%D 30%31%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Netherlands ๐ณ๐ฑ v ๐น๐ณ Tunisiaโ Netherlands win
61%D 26%13%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (14.2%)
Netherlands ๐ณ๐ฑ v ๐ธ๐ช Swedenโ Netherlands win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.0%)
Japan ๐ฏ๐ต v ๐น๐ณ Tunisiaโ Japan win
56%D 27%16%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.4%)
Japan ๐ฏ๐ต v ๐ธ๐ช Swedenโ Japan win
49%D 29%22%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.8%)
Tunisia ๐น๐ณ v ๐ธ๐ช Swedenโ Sweden win
29%D 30%41%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.5%)
Group G predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ง๐ช | Belgium 1866Winner | 5.3 | 87% |
| 2 | ๐ฎ๐ท | Iran 1772Runner-up | 4.5 | 77% |
| 3 | ๐ช๐ฌ | Egypt 16963rd โ advances | 3.8 | 66% |
| 4 | ๐ณ๐ฟ | New Zealand 1562Out | 2.7 | 41% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Belgium ๐ง๐ช v ๐ฎ๐ท Iranโ Belgium win
41%D 30%28%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.4%)
Belgium ๐ง๐ช v ๐ช๐ฌ Egyptโ Belgium win
47%D 29%23%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.0%)
Belgium ๐ง๐ช v ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealandโ Belgium win
59%D 27%15%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (13.1%)
Iran ๐ฎ๐ท v ๐ช๐ฌ Egyptโ Iran win
40%D 30%30%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.5%)
Iran ๐ฎ๐ท v ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealandโ Iran win
50%D 29%21%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.6%)
Egypt ๐ช๐ฌ v ๐ณ๐ฟ New Zealandโ Egypt win
44%D 30%26%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.2%)
Group H predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ช๐ธ | Spain 2165Winner | 6.9 | 98% |
| 2 | ๐บ๐พ | Uruguay 1892Runner-up | 4.9 | 86% |
| 3 | ๐จ๐ป | Cape Verde 15783rd โ out | 2.4 | 36% |
| 4 | ๐ธ๐ฆ | Saudi Arabia 1569Out | 2.3 | 34% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Spain ๐ช๐ธ v ๐บ๐พ Uruguayโ Spain win
56%D 27%17%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.5%)
Spain ๐ช๐ธ v ๐ธ๐ฆ Saudi Arabiaโ Spain win
77%D 18%5%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (16.7%)
Spain ๐ช๐ธ v ๐จ๐ป Cape Verdeโ Spain win
76%D 19%5%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (16.8%)
Uruguay ๐บ๐พ v ๐ธ๐ฆ Saudi Arabiaโ Uruguay win
60%D 26%13%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (13.8%)
Uruguay ๐บ๐พ v ๐จ๐ป Cape Verdeโ Uruguay win
60%D 26%14%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (13.5%)
Saudi Arabia ๐ธ๐ฆ v ๐จ๐ป Cape Verdeโ Cape win
34%D 31%35%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Group I predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ซ๐ท | France 2081Winner | 5.9 | 94% |
| 2 | ๐ณ๐ด | Norway 1917Runner-up | 4.5 | 78% |
| 3 | ๐ธ๐ณ | Senegal 18673rd โ advances | 4.0 | 71% |
| 4 | ๐ฎ๐ถ | Iraq 1618Out | 1.9 | 25% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
France ๐ซ๐ท v ๐ธ๐ณ Senegalโ France win
51%D 29%21%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.5%)
France ๐ซ๐ท v ๐ณ๐ด Norwayโ France win
47%D 30%24%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.0%)
France ๐ซ๐ท v ๐ฎ๐ถ Iraqโ France win
73%D 21%6%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (18.2%)
Senegal ๐ธ๐ณ v ๐ณ๐ด Norwayโ Norway win
31%D 31%38%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Senegal ๐ธ๐ณ v ๐ฎ๐ถ Iraqโ Senegal win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.0%)
Norway ๐ณ๐ด v ๐ฎ๐ถ Iraqโ Norway win
58%D 27%15%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (13.0%)
Group J predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ฆ๐ท | Argentina 2113Winner | 6.5 | 96% |
| 2 | ๐ฆ๐น | Austria 1830Runner-up | 3.9 | 69% |
| 3 | ๐ฉ๐ฟ | Algeria 17603rd โ out | 3.3 | 56% |
| 4 | ๐ฏ๐ด | Jordan 1685Out | 2.6 | 42% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Argentina ๐ฆ๐ท v ๐ฆ๐น Austriaโ Argentina win
57%D 27%16%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (12.4%)
Argentina ๐ฆ๐ท v ๐ฉ๐ฟ Algeriaโ Argentina win
63%D 25%11%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (15.0%)
Argentina ๐ฆ๐ท v ๐ฏ๐ด Jordanโ Argentina win
72%D 22%6%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (18.4%)
Austria ๐ฆ๐น v ๐ฉ๐ฟ Algeriaโ Austria win
40%D 30%30%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.5%)
Austria ๐ฆ๐น v ๐ฏ๐ด Jordanโ Austria win
45%D 30%25%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.2%)
Algeria ๐ฉ๐ฟ v ๐ฏ๐ด Jordanโ Algeria win
40%D 30%30%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.5%)
Group K predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ต๐น | Portugal 1984Winner | 5.4 | 89% |
| 2 | ๐จ๐ด | Colombia 1977Runner-up | 5.3 | 88% |
| 3 | ๐บ๐ฟ | Uzbekistan 17183rd โ out | 3.1 | 51% |
| 4 | ๐จ๐ฉ | DR Congo 1661Out | 2.6 | 39% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
Portugal ๐ต๐น v ๐จ๐ด Colombiaโ Portugal win
35%D 31%34%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.6%)
Portugal ๐ต๐น v ๐บ๐ฟ Uzbekistanโ Portugal win
55%D 28%17%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.7%)
Portugal ๐ต๐น v ๐จ๐ฉ DR Congoโ Portugal win
60%D 26%13%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (13.8%)
Colombia ๐จ๐ด v ๐บ๐ฟ Uzbekistanโ Colombia win
54%D 28%18%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (12.8%)
Colombia ๐จ๐ด v ๐จ๐ฉ DR Congoโ Colombia win
60%D 26%14%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (13.6%)
Uzbekistan ๐บ๐ฟ v ๐จ๐ฉ DR Congoโ Uzbekistan win
39%D 30%31%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.5%)
Group L predicted table ยท qualify %
| 1 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ | England 2020Winner | 6.0 | 94% |
| 2 | ๐ญ๐ท | Croatia 1908Runner-up | 5.1 | 88% |
| 3 | ๐ต๐ฆ | Panama 17303rd โ advances | 3.5 | 62% |
| 4 | ๐ฌ๐ญ | Ghana 1510Out | 1.7 | 21% |
All 6 matches โ W / D / L
England ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ v ๐ญ๐ท Croatiaโ England win
43%D 30%27%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (14.4%)
England ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ v ๐ต๐ฆ Panamaโ England win
57%D 27%16%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (12.7%)
England ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ v ๐ฌ๐ญ Ghanaโ England win
74%D 20%5%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (17.7%)
Croatia ๐ญ๐ท v ๐ต๐ฆ Panamaโ Croatia win
48%D 29%23%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.9%)
Croatia ๐ญ๐ท v ๐ฌ๐ญ Ghanaโ Croatia win
68%D 23%8%
Most likely score: 2โ0 (17.0%)
Panama ๐ต๐ฆ v ๐ฌ๐ญ Ghanaโ Panama win
51%D 29%20%
Most likely score: 1โ1 (13.4%)
Projected qualifiers โ the 32
Top two from each group (24) plus the eight best third-placed teams by expected points. These are the model's most-likely Round-of-32 entrants.
Group winners & runners-up
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico๐ฐ๐ท South Korea๐จ๐ญ Switzerland๐จ๐ฆ Canada๐ง๐ท Brazil๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco๐ต๐พ Paraguay๐น๐ท Tรผrkiye๐ช๐จ Ecuador๐ฉ๐ช Germany๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands๐ฏ๐ต Japan๐ง๐ช Belgium๐ฎ๐ท Iran๐ช๐ธ Spain๐บ๐พ Uruguay๐ซ๐ท France๐ณ๐ด Norway๐ฆ๐ท Argentina๐ฆ๐น Austria๐ต๐น Portugal๐จ๐ด Colombia๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England๐ญ๐ท Croatia
8 best third-placed teams
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland 4.0 xPts ยท Grp C๐ธ๐ณ Senegal 4.0 xPts ยท Grp I๐บ๐ธ USA 4.0 xPts ยท Grp D๐จ๐ฟ Czechia 3.9 xPts ยท Grp A๐ช๐ฌ Egypt 3.8 xPts ยท Grp G๐จ๐ฎ Ivory Coast 3.6 xPts ยท Grp E๐ต๐ฆ Panama 3.5 xPts ยท Grp L๐ธ๐ช Sweden 3.3 xPts ยท Grp F
Knockout projection โ to the final
Illustrative strength-seeded bracket using the projected qualifiers. Each tie shows the regulation W/D/L and the team the model expects to advance (including shootout odds when a draw is most likely). Real pairings will differ โ this is one representative path.
Round of 32 (16)
๐ช๐ธ Spain72%
๐จ๐ฎ Ivory Coast6%
Draw 22% ยท Spain advance 89%
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico35%
๐ธ๐ณ Senegal34%
Draw 31% ยท Mexico advance 51%
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands49%
๐ฎ๐ท Iran21%
Draw 30% ยท Netherlands advance 67%
๐ช๐จ Ecuador46%
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland24%
Draw 30% ยท Ecuador advance 64%
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England59%
๐จ๐ฟ Czechia14%
Draw 27% ยท England advance 77%
๐ฏ๐ต Japan40%
๐ฆ๐น Austria29%
Draw 31% ยท Japan advance 57%
๐ง๐ท Brazil55%
๐บ๐ธ USA16%
Draw 28% ยท Brazil advance 74%
๐ญ๐ท Croatia40%
๐ฒ๐ฆ Morocco28%
Draw 31% ยท Croatia advance 58%
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina70%
๐ช๐ฌ Egypt6%
Draw 23% ยท Argentina advance 88%
๐จ๐ญ Switzerland36%
๐ง๐ช Belgium33%
Draw 31% ยท Switzerland advance 52%
๐จ๐ด Colombia52%
๐ฐ๐ท South Korea19%
Draw 29% ยท Colombia advance 70%
๐ฉ๐ช Germany44%
๐จ๐ฆ Canada25%
Draw 31% ยท Germany advance 62%
๐ซ๐ท France67%
๐ธ๐ช Sweden8%
Draw 25% ยท France advance 85%
๐บ๐พ Uruguay39%
๐ต๐พ Paraguay30%
Draw 31% ยท Uruguay advance 55%
๐ต๐น Portugal55%
๐ต๐ฆ Panama17%
Draw 29% ยท Portugal advance 73%
๐ณ๐ด Norway42%
๐น๐ท Tรผrkiye27%
Draw 31% ยท Norway advance 59%
Round of 16 (8)
๐ช๐ธ Spain58%
๐ฒ๐ฝ Mexico14%
Draw 28% ยท Spain advance 77%
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands36%
๐ช๐จ Ecuador32%
Draw 31% ยท Netherlands advance 52%
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England43%
๐ฏ๐ต Japan26%
Draw 31% ยท England advance 60%
๐ง๐ท Brazil40%
๐ญ๐ท Croatia29%
Draw 31% ยท Brazil advance 57%
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina52%
๐จ๐ญ Switzerland19%
Draw 29% ยท Argentina advance 70%
๐จ๐ด Colombia38%
๐ฉ๐ช Germany30%
Draw 31% ยท Colombia advance 55%
๐ซ๐ท France49%
๐บ๐พ Uruguay21%
Draw 30% ยท France advance 67%
๐ต๐น Portugal39%
๐ณ๐ด Norway30%
Draw 31% ยท Portugal advance 56%
Quarter-finals (4)
๐ช๐ธ Spain50%
๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands20%
Draw 30% ยท Spain advance 69%
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England37%
๐ง๐ท Brazil32%
Draw 31% ยท England advance 53%
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina45%
๐จ๐ด Colombia25%
Draw 31% ยท Argentina advance 62%
๐ซ๐ท France41%
๐ต๐น Portugal28%
Draw 31% ยท France advance 59%
Semi-finals (2)
๐ช๐ธ Spain45%
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England24%
Draw 30% ยท Spain advance 63%
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina37%
๐ซ๐ท France32%
Draw 31% ยท Argentina advance 53%
Final (1)
๐ช๐ธ Spain38%
๐ฆ๐ท Argentina31%
Draw 31% ยท Spain advance 55%
Model's projected champion
๐ช๐ธ Spain
Projected final: ๐ช๐ธ Spain vs ๐ฆ๐ท Argentina โ most likely scoreline 1โ1, Spain to advance 55%.
Stage expectations โ top contenders
Probability of reaching each stage, from 20,000 simulations. This is the rigorous, fixture-independent view โ unlike the single bracket above, it averages over every possible path.
| # | Team | Reach R16 | Reach QF | Reach SF | Reach Final | Win Cup |
|---|
| 1 | ๐ช๐ธ Spain | 79% | 60% | 44% | 31% | 21.6% |
| 2 | ๐ฆ๐ท Argentina | 73% | 52% | 35% | 23% | 14.3% |
| 3 | ๐ซ๐ท France | 68% | 47% | 31% | 19% | 11.1% |
| 4 | ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England | 64% | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7.2% |
| 5 | ๐ง๐ท Brazil | 60% | 36% | 20% | 10% | 5.1% |
| 6 | ๐ต๐น Portugal | 56% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 4.8% |
| 7 | ๐จ๐ด Colombia | 56% | 33% | 18% | 9% | 4.6% |
| 8 | ๐ณ๐ฑ Netherlands | 55% | 32% | 18% | 9% | 3.7% |
| 9 | ๐ช๐จ Ecuador | 56% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3.3% |
| 10 | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany | 54% | 29% | 14% | 6% | 2.7% |
| 11 | ๐ณ๐ด Norway | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2.3% |
| 12 | ๐ฏ๐ต Japan | 48% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2.1% |